I have attached our Covid Dashboard for this morning. (Click HERE). We have 44 Covid + patients (7 are “Previously Positive” or in hospital >21 days). We are running 13 vents, 12 are covid patients.

Of note of the vaccination status of our patients (seen in lower right corner of the Dashboard) = 89% patients in beds are unvaccinated; 91% ICU unvaccinated; 89% ventilated unvaccinated. These percentages are very similar to what the UNC System as a whole are seeing as well.

We are having no supply or PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) issues at this time.

Attached UNC modeling update for this week.

A promising trend with Hospitalizations declining this past week across NC. Slide 4 displays the forecast; which shows our peak has occurred (if current rate of transmission remains the same). (Click HERE.)

Our covid census at JH has been relatively flat this past week ; we have hovered between 45 and 50 covid patients all week. This past week was the first week that we were not holding ICU patients in the ED and have essentially been at full capacity with both covid and an increase in our non-covid census. We did hold a non-covid, medical floor patient for a few hours yesterday in the ED while awaiting a bed.

Of note is our general census (total census of all patients) remains high. Our two hospitals are at 228 total patients this morning (observation, ED, inpatients); which is very busy for this time of year.

We continue our hold on non-emergent surgeries that require an inpatient bed; however our surgical teams, anesthesia, and leadership are meeting to discuss if/when we can slowly open some of these back up in the near future – pending ongoing covid census/bed demand. This decision will be based on when we have bed capacity to care for non-emergent surgical patients who require an inpatient stay following their surgery.

I was asked “when would it feel more like normal” based on these analytics. To answer this, if we look at Slide 5 of observed data, we see the graph decline to around 100 or less covid patients across the UNC System around late November. This correlates to what we had back in mid-July when I was starting to feel “almost normal” again. At that time, Johnston Health had 4 covid inpatients; this was just before the Delta variant became rampant across NC and the nation – a few weeks later in August, we hit 84 covid inpatients.

One caveat: Not to bust a balloon; but right at the end of November is when we will start the major Holiday season again with Thanksgiving gatherings. That is what imitated our surge last year in December. The question is, will we have enough vaccinations (or past + patients) in the county to ward off another surge? (Currently sitting at 44% fully vaccinated in JoCo). Remember, these analytics make predictions by current rate of transmission seen in our community; a ramp up of gatherings in an unprotected setting can change this.

Thank you all for your review and please reach out anytime if I can be of assistance or answer any questions for you.  Feel free to share this data with your colleagues who may be interested as well.

Tommy Williams, MHA, RRT, RCP | President & CEO

Johnston UNC Health

509 N. Bright Leaf Blvd., P.O. Box 1376, Smithfield, NC 27577

O: (919) 938-7111